國(guó)際航運(yùn)業(yè)作為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要支柱,承載了全球約80%的港口間貿(mào)易[1],但同時(shí)也帶來了大量溫室氣體與污染物排放。如果將航運(yùn)業(yè)比作一個(gè)國(guó)家,那么它將“躋身”全球前十大溫室氣體排放國(guó)之列[2]。
為了遏制全球氣溫上升,逆轉(zhuǎn)氣候變化的負(fù)面影響,航運(yùn)業(yè)必須在2050年前實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放。國(guó)際海事組織(IMO)最近公布了“在2050年左右(by or round)實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放”的目標(biāo)[3]。每個(gè)國(guó)家和地區(qū)具體的達(dá)成時(shí)間需要因地制宜,視“國(guó)家情況”而定。
不過,也有一些批評(píng)的聲音指出,IMO設(shè)定的目標(biāo)模棱兩可,“嚴(yán)重偏低”,履行當(dāng)前承諾的實(shí)施路徑也模糊不清[4]。如今,航運(yùn)業(yè)使用的低碳燃料幾乎都是新生事物,價(jià)格昂貴,如果處理不當(dāng),甚至有增加排放量的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。可以說,當(dāng)下全球航運(yùn)業(yè)仍缺乏一種清潔高效、商業(yè)可行、可大規(guī)模應(yīng)用的解決方案。因此,要在2050年前實(shí)現(xiàn)航運(yùn)業(yè)凈零排放,不僅需要各國(guó)做出更有力的承諾,還需要從清潔燃料技術(shù)、高效船舶設(shè)計(jì)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施等方面開啟一場(chǎng)革命,同時(shí)引入大量資金入場(chǎng),來推動(dòng)這一轉(zhuǎn)型。
目前,大多數(shù)商業(yè)船舶使用的是重質(zhì)燃料油(航運(yùn)重油)。自19世紀(jì)以來,這種濃稠的焦油狀物質(zhì)就一直用于航運(yùn),由于其能量密度高,因此只需很少的量就可以實(shí)現(xiàn)長(zhǎng)距離航行。同時(shí),由于重油是精煉柴油和汽油過程中的副產(chǎn)品,價(jià)格也相對(duì)低廉。
但“物美價(jià)廉”的代價(jià)是沉重的。首先,航運(yùn)重油會(huì)加劇氣候變化,其每年排放量占全球二氧化碳排放總量的3%[5];產(chǎn)生大量的環(huán)境和健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn);同時(shí),航運(yùn)業(yè)每年排放的二氧化硫占總排放量的9%,氮氧化物占18%,這些有害的大氣污染物會(huì)影響人的呼吸系統(tǒng)[6]并導(dǎo)致酸雨[7]。重油還會(huì)產(chǎn)生黑碳(煤煙)[8],使北極地區(qū)表面變黑,加劇全球變暖,并對(duì)人類健康構(gòu)成威脅[9],如引發(fā)心臟疾病和肺部疾病等。
牙買加金斯頓,一艘離港口貨輪冒出滾滾黑煙。貨輪主要使用的重質(zhì)燃料油會(huì)加劇氣候變化、空氣污染和人類健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。圖源:Lucia Gajdosikova/iStock
有數(shù)據(jù)顯示,到2050年,海運(yùn)貿(mào)易量將增加兩倍[10],如果航運(yùn)業(yè)不能及時(shí)果斷采取措施,撥正“航向”,其排放量將會(huì)繼續(xù)攀升,高企不下。盡管充滿挑戰(zhàn),但這一轉(zhuǎn)型也蘊(yùn)藏著巨大機(jī)遇。根據(jù)可持續(xù)海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)高級(jí)別小組委托開展的一項(xiàng)最新研究表明[11],航運(yùn)業(yè)通過采取減排措施,有望在2050年實(shí)現(xiàn)每年減排20億噸溫室氣體,相當(dāng)于每年減少4億多輛汽車上路。
2011年,IMO制定了船舶最低燃料經(jīng)濟(jì)性要求,這也是國(guó)際運(yùn)輸領(lǐng)域首個(gè)強(qiáng)制性溫室氣體減排制度[12]。自2008年以來,一些增效措施,如減速航行(降低船舶速度)[13]、球鼻艏(位于船舶前部,以減少阻力、提高燃料經(jīng)濟(jì)性)[14]以及螺旋槳和船體升級(jí)等,已將航運(yùn)業(yè)的碳排放強(qiáng)度降低了30%以上[15]。如果結(jié)合節(jié)能型船舶設(shè)計(jì)(如細(xì)長(zhǎng)船體)與風(fēng)帆輔助推進(jìn),還可以進(jìn)一步減少30%的燃料用量。
然而,僅靠這些解決方案,減排力度還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不夠。大多數(shù)解決方案都或多或少存在一些缺陷,如增加運(yùn)輸時(shí)間增加、改造成本高昂[16],更適用于船期靈活的小型慢速船舶等[17]。提高能效的措施大部分已開發(fā)殆盡,航運(yùn)業(yè)迫切需要通過迅速大規(guī)模推廣應(yīng)用低碳和無碳燃料,以填補(bǔ)減排缺口。
據(jù)估算,要達(dá)到1.5℃溫升目標(biāo), 5%-17%的航運(yùn)燃料需要在2030年轉(zhuǎn)型為零排放燃料,到2050年這一比例則需進(jìn)一步上升至84%-93%[18]。然而目前的航運(yùn)低碳燃料轉(zhuǎn)型進(jìn)度與這一目標(biāo)還相去甚遠(yuǎn)[19][20]。整體來看,與重油相比,零排放燃料在經(jīng)濟(jì)、技術(shù)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面還存在較大的障礙[21]。那么,目前有哪些選擇方案?它們能否助力航運(yùn)業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放目標(biāo)?
液化天然氣:權(quán)宜之計(jì)。
迄今為止,商業(yè)上唯一可行的航運(yùn)替代燃料是已經(jīng)投入使用約20年的液化天然氣(LNG)[22]。相比傳統(tǒng)船用燃料,液化天然氣的二氧化碳排放量可減少約25%[23],但其本質(zhì)仍然是一種化石燃料,同時(shí)甲烷泄漏的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也很高(甲烷是一種高全球變暖潛能值的排放,其造成氣候變暖的能力是二氧化碳的28-34倍)[24]。研究表明,即使是船上最常用的液化天然氣發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī),也無法產(chǎn)生溫室氣體減排效益;相反,如果將甲烷泄漏和上游產(chǎn)業(yè)排放量也計(jì)算在內(nèi),其在全生命周期內(nèi)的溫室氣體排放量,反而比傳統(tǒng)船用燃料的排放高出70%[25]。
此外,最近一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)[26],隨著航運(yùn)業(yè)迅速摒棄化石燃料,昂貴的液化天然氣船隊(duì)可能將很快失去存在價(jià)值。因此,若全球航運(yùn)船隊(duì)都立刻改用液化天然氣,那么到2030年則可能導(dǎo)致高達(dá)8500億美元的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失[27]。
氣體燃燒裝置正在大型液化天然氣儲(chǔ)罐頂部燃燒。液化天然氣是目前唯一商業(yè)上可行的替代航運(yùn)燃料,但因其生命周期內(nèi)溫室氣體排放量高,并不是一項(xiàng)長(zhǎng)期解決方案。圖源:Sky_Blue/iStock
總體而言,天然氣被視為推動(dòng)航運(yùn)燃料向低碳轉(zhuǎn)型的“過渡方案”,是臨時(shí)的[28]。為了避免做出在未來20至30年內(nèi)可能錯(cuò)誤的投資決策,目前只有不到1/3的航運(yùn)公司計(jì)劃在未來五年內(nèi)轉(zhuǎn)而使用天然氣[29]。
甲醇:物美價(jià)不廉。
行業(yè)巨頭馬士基公司已經(jīng)投資制備了“綠色”甲醇,這是一種由捕獲的二氧化碳和綠氫(使用可再生能源電解水生產(chǎn)的氫氣)合成的零碳燃料[30]。甲醇可以在常溫下以液體形式儲(chǔ)存,也可以在現(xiàn)有船舶上使用。目前全球100個(gè)最大的港口中有88個(gè)提供甲醇儲(chǔ)存設(shè)施[31]。
然而,綠色甲醇的最大問題在于原料的獲取[32]。捕獲二氧化碳和可再生電解水制氫的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施尚未進(jìn)入規(guī)模化量產(chǎn),因此,成本也一直居高不下。專家表示,如果不能出臺(tái)促進(jìn)綠色甲醇發(fā)展的激勵(lì)措施,其他更具成本效益的燃料將會(huì)主導(dǎo)未來市場(chǎng)。
氨和氫:未來最佳燃料,但推廣緩慢
氨是一種由氮和氫組成的可再生燃料,由于其幾乎不排放二氧化碳,能量密度高,比其他零排放燃料便宜,因此也是最有前途的解決方案之一[33]。不過,使用氨作為航運(yùn)燃料仍存在著安全隱患(主要是毒性問題)[34]。船上和岸上工作人員必須經(jīng)過專門培訓(xùn),攜帶防護(hù)設(shè)備,船只設(shè)計(jì)也必須達(dá)到較高安全水平,才能減少泄漏的可能性。綠氫的產(chǎn)能也需要進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。這些因素都導(dǎo)致氨比傳統(tǒng)燃料更加昂貴。
氫燃料也日益被視為航運(yùn)業(yè)減排的重要解決方案[35]。通過可再生能源制取的氫燃料,其燃燒碳排放量為零[36]。氫燃料的能量密度大約是重油的3倍[37],且無毒、無色、無味。但氫氣是易燃、易擴(kuò)散的氣體,要使用氫氣作為燃料,船員也必須接受專門培訓(xùn),船舶還需要安裝昂貴的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,通過加壓將氫氣儲(chǔ)存在零下253攝氏度(華氏零下423度)的低溫環(huán)境中[38]。這些安全問題,以及高昂的改造運(yùn)營(yíng)成本,都是氨和氫兩種燃料在目前推廣應(yīng)用中面臨的共同障礙。
生物燃料和電動(dòng)船舶:應(yīng)用范圍有限。
通過使用生物燃料和電動(dòng)化來替代重油也在探索之中。目前,生物燃料與傳統(tǒng)燃料混合使用,已在現(xiàn)實(shí)中得到應(yīng)用[39]。
生物燃料是通過將植物油或動(dòng)物脂肪等生物質(zhì)轉(zhuǎn)化為燃料制成的,具有可再生、碳排放量低的特點(diǎn)[40]。然而,生物燃料的可持續(xù)性主要取決于生產(chǎn)過程中所使用的生物質(zhì)和動(dòng)物原料的類型。在原來種植糧食的農(nóng)田上,種植生物質(zhì)資源會(huì)帶來糧食安全隱患[41]。環(huán)境和經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的巨大障礙,也阻礙了生物燃料的大規(guī)模應(yīng)用。目前,有關(guān)生物燃料如何幫助加速低碳轉(zhuǎn)型的研究也在與日俱增[42]。
一臺(tái)聯(lián)合收割機(jī)正在一大片農(nóng)田上收割大豆。雖然玉米和大豆等作物可以用來生產(chǎn)低碳燃料,但轉(zhuǎn)化農(nóng)田生產(chǎn)生物燃料,會(huì)給糧食安全帶來壓力。圖源:BanksPhotos/iStock
電動(dòng)化船舶與推廣岸電是全球航運(yùn)業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)零排放的另一種選擇。但鑒于目前的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施條件,電動(dòng)化方案只適用于近海貿(mào)易或國(guó)內(nèi)小型渡輪[43]。當(dāng)然,如果能與其他燃料結(jié)合使用,其應(yīng)用范圍可能會(huì)擴(kuò)大,如可以使用柴油發(fā)電機(jī)為船用電動(dòng)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)充電[44]。
進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大可再生能源規(guī)模,是航運(yùn)業(yè)成功轉(zhuǎn)型的重要前提。這一點(diǎn)毋庸置疑。
生產(chǎn)氫、氨和甲醇等燃料需要大量能源,這意味著必須在這些燃料的生產(chǎn)過程中也需要實(shí)現(xiàn)脫碳,才能減少整體排放量。例如,如果氫燃料是石油煉化過程中副產(chǎn)品,會(huì)產(chǎn)生大量溫室氣體排放,削弱其作為低碳解決方案的潛力[45]。目前,全球只有30%的能源是可再生的[46]。盡管可再生能源轉(zhuǎn)型的發(fā)展勢(shì)頭強(qiáng)勁,全球必須加速擴(kuò)大可再生能源的投資和生產(chǎn)[47],否則將無法生產(chǎn)出足夠的零排放燃料,實(shí)現(xiàn)2050年凈零排放的目標(biāo)[48]。
要真正實(shí)現(xiàn)《巴黎協(xié)定》目標(biāo),航運(yùn)業(yè)還需要做出比IMO提出的2023年戰(zhàn)略更有力的承諾,這也是全球航運(yùn)公司、各國(guó)政府及其他各利益相關(guān)方在這一問題上展現(xiàn)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力的重要機(jī)遇。
目前,美國(guó)和挪威政府在第27屆聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候變化大會(huì)(COP27)上發(fā)起了“綠色航運(yùn)挑戰(zhàn)”倡議[49],得到了可持續(xù)海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)高級(jí)別小組的支持[50]。這也進(jìn)一步激勵(lì)了各國(guó)政府、港口和船舶公司紛紛做出凈零排放承諾。歐盟于2024年1月起正式將航運(yùn)業(yè)的排放[51]納入歐盟排放交易體系[52],旨在鼓勵(lì)航運(yùn)業(yè)加快轉(zhuǎn)型。此外,一些機(jī)構(gòu)還在呼吁針對(duì)國(guó)際航運(yùn)的溫室氣體排放征收稅費(fèi)[53],將其收入用于資助發(fā)展中國(guó)家的氣候解決方案。盡管包括世界銀行和一些國(guó)家政府在內(nèi)的支持這一提議[54],但I(xiàn)MO在2027年之前就此提議前達(dá)成一致的可能性較低[55]。
一艘大型貨船正駛過荷蘭的一個(gè)風(fēng)力發(fā)電場(chǎng)。發(fā)展風(fēng)能等可再生能源對(duì)于大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)零碳航運(yùn)所需的燃料至關(guān)重要。圖源:kruwy/iStock
實(shí)現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)型也需要大幅增加對(duì)低碳燃料與相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的資金投入。要使零碳燃料在商業(yè)上可行、在船舶上使用安全可靠,并在全球航運(yùn)業(yè)推廣和應(yīng)用,都需要耗費(fèi)高昂的資金進(jìn)行支持;據(jù)估算,實(shí)現(xiàn)航運(yùn)業(yè)的減排目標(biāo)需要花費(fèi)約1萬億至1.4萬億美元的資金[56]。
目前,航運(yùn)業(yè)可以獲得一些融資支持,例如《波塞冬原則》當(dāng)前簽署國(guó),可提供總額超過1850億美元的債務(wù)融資;大型航運(yùn)公司也預(yù)計(jì)將在未來增加低碳投資[57]。IMO提出的“2023年戰(zhàn)略”中還列出了一份商業(yè)案例,包括增加公共和私人投資、協(xié)調(diào)新進(jìn)場(chǎng)資金和現(xiàn)有資金等,這都有助于推動(dòng)各國(guó)家和地區(qū)出臺(tái)自身的政策。但目前最主要的挑戰(zhàn)在于能否及時(shí)為這些解決方案提供資金,從而實(shí)現(xiàn)《巴黎協(xié)定》的目標(biāo)。
盡管航運(yùn)業(yè)的低碳轉(zhuǎn)型會(huì)面臨各種挑戰(zhàn),但也創(chuàng)造了獨(dú)一無二的機(jī)遇[58]。航運(yùn)業(yè)的低碳發(fā)展不僅可以遏制氣候變化,還可以成為氣候創(chuàng)新領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)軍行業(yè),通過開發(fā)低碳燃料基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,幫助其他能源行業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)減排目標(biāo);改善沿海空氣質(zhì)量,減少航運(yùn)污染引起的人類健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和過早死亡,創(chuàng)造與新燃料供應(yīng)鏈相關(guān)的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)等[59]。航運(yùn)業(yè)必須積極采取行動(dòng),大力增加資金投入,制定強(qiáng)有力的政策框架,才能確保這一關(guān)鍵轉(zhuǎn)型得以如期實(shí)現(xiàn)。
原文作者
Juan Garcia Valencia, Amy Swift
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