2019凍品行業報告之一

2019凍品行業十大事件

OIG Research Review 2019: Topic One: Top 10 events of imported meat 

and seafood in 2019

前言：春暖花開，未來已來。2019已成記憶，在過去的一年間，中國凍品行業風云變換。瘟疫的肆虐、行情的跌宕、政府的調控、巨頭的布局，時刻都在牽動著業內人士緊繃的神經。

Foreword: 2019 has become a memory. In the past year, 

the situation of frozen meat and seafood in China has changed a lot

優合集團作為中國最大的進口凍肉和水產品供應鏈平臺，始終與業界朋友并肩奮斗、風雨同舟。2020年，優合將向業界朋友分享更多資訊、輸出更多價值，敬請期待。

As the largest supply chain platform for imported frozen meat and seafood in China, OIG(OPTIMIZE INTEGRATION GROUP) has always worked hard with our partners in the industry. In 2020, OIG are aiming to share more information and output more value to our partners.

凡是過往，皆為序章。近期，優合將推出回眸2019系列文章，梳理過往、思考未來。

01非洲豬瘟疫情

01.ASF

非洲豬瘟在中國暴發并大面積傳播已進入第二年。2019年中國豬瘟疫情的局面可從兩個方面來概括。

This is the second year that African swine fever broke out and spread widely in China. The situation of swine fever in China in 2019 could be summarized from two aspects.

一方面，防控成效顯著。從2018年8月3日，我國確診發生第一例非洲豬瘟疫情以來，全國共報告發生了162起非洲豬瘟疫情，共撲殺近120萬頭染疫生豬。截止到2020年1月8日，全國除云南省還有1起疫情尚未解除封鎖外，其余的30個省區市的疫情都已經全部解除封鎖。2019年，全國共報告發生了63起非洲豬瘟疫情，共撲殺生豬39萬頭；除4月份之外，其他11個月的疫情發生數都保持在個位數。

另一方面，形勢依然嚴峻復雜。我國非洲豬瘟病毒已經形成了較大的污染面，預計疫情將來還會在我國呈點狀發生，防控形勢依然嚴峻復雜。尤其要注意，冬春季節非洲豬瘟發病風險更高、消毒措施效果不佳。生豬存欄的快速增加、生豬和豬肉產品調運增多，也會大大增加疫情發生和傳播的風險。

總的來說，雖然2019的疫情防控效果相較于2018年有了明顯的提升，但非洲豬瘟對中國養豬業造成的影響遠未消散。

1. The prevention and control actions have achieved remarkable results. By January 8, 2020, except for one case in Yunnan Province, the rest 30 provinces have lifted the movement restrictions of hog. The number of outbreaks in each month of 2019 remained in single digits except April.

2. The situation is still severe and complex. The risk of ASF was higher in winter and spring. If the disinfection measures have not been strictly taken by farmers, With the cross provincial transportation of hogs and the pressure of hog stocks, the epidemic is likely to return and large-scale outbreak again.

In general, although the epidemic prevention and control in 2019 has been improved significantly compared with 2018, the impact of African swine fever on pork industry in China is far from dissipated.

02中國加快批準多國多廠準入

2. A large number of foreign plants have been approved during 2019.

非洲豬瘟造成了中國國內豬肉產量的急劇減少，作為豬肉替代品的牛羊禽肉也同樣受到波及，面臨更大的供需逆差。為擴大肉類進口、增加供給、緩解供需矛盾，2019年海關總署全面加快進口肉類的國家準入和工廠注冊進程。全年共新增國家準入16個，新注冊工廠642家，在2018年的基礎上分別快速增長50%、79.85%。

ASF has caused a precipice reduction in pork production of China. As substitutes for pork, beef, mutton and poultry meat have also been affected obviously, facing a greater supply-demand deficit. In order to guarantee the market supply of meat, the GACC comprehensively accelerated the process of approval of foreign plants entering the Chinese market in 2019.

 As a result, a historically high number of 642 plants have been approved in 2019, up 79.85% than 2018.

03中國進口肉類數量猛增

3. The total amount of imported meat increased sharply

更大的供需逆差需要更大的進口量來填補。2019年，中國肉類進口商們各顯神通，在擴展自身業務的同時，為國內市場帶來了史無前例的肉類供給。

A bigger supply-demand deficit needs to be filled by more imports. In 2019, Chinese meat importers have tried their best to expand their business and created the largest annual meat import volume so far.

中國市場供需失衡、國外貨源數量快速增長，使得2019年肉類進口量、進口金額暴增，前8個月即已追平2018全年進口量。2019全年進口肉類及雜碎總量603.2萬噸，同比暴漲48.2%。

The imbalance between supply and demand in China's market and the rapid growth in the number of foreign sources of goods have resulted in a sharp increase in the volume and amount of meat imports in 2019. It is unprecedent that the import volume in the first 8 months of 2019 overtake that of the whole year of 2018. According to China Customs statistics, the total amount of imported meat and offal in 2019 is around 6.032 million tons, up 48.2% than in 2018.

04進口凍品大漲大跌

4. Huge fluctuation on the price of imported frozen meat 

受中國“缺肉”預期的刺激，凍肉期貨采購量一路上揚。特別是5月中食展（SIAL）、10月科隆展（ANUGA）、11月進博會（CIIE）及餐飲食材展（FHC）等各大展覽，對價格飆升起到了推波助瀾的作用。11中旬，豬牛雞各類價格被拉升到歷史高位。此時，一場危機從天而降。11月中下旬開始，隨著國內豬肉價格開始下行，進口凍肉價格呈斷崖式大幅度下跌20%-40%，全行業流動性很差、資金非常緊張。從某種意義上來說，2019年中國進口凍品行業又被迫經歷了一次洗牌。

Insiders generally believed that the domestic meat supply in China will be more tense, so they had very high expectations for the future price of frozen meat. Some traders were even willing to take high risk to buy frozen meat futures at an unbelievable price. The situation of short supply at various exhibitions promoted the continuous rise of meat prices and it made traders become more enthusiastic about frozen meat. In the middle of November 2019, the price of many meat products had been raised to a historical high level. Unpredictably, a crisis was coming. From the middle to the last ten days of November, with the continuous decline of domestic pork price, the price of imported frozen meat began to fall sharply, with a range of 20% - 40%. A large number of losses and defaults have resulted in poor liquidity in the industry and It even made some small and medium-sized enterprises close to bankruptcy. In a sense, Chinese imported frozen meat industry was forced to undergo a reshuffle in 2019.

05進口凍品：風險與風控

5. Imported frozen meat and seafood: 

risk and risk control

隨著進口肉類來源的增多、數量的快速增長，進口肉類面臨的質量安全不合格數量隨之增長。2019年中國海關阻止不合格肉類入境批次同比增長288%。

此外，2019年白蝦曝出“大新聞”——疫病問題，厄瓜多爾、印度等國工廠紛紛被中國海關檢出白斑病、黃頭病等疫病，導致多家工廠被暫停輸華，一時貿易大受影響。12月，痛定思痛之后的厄瓜多爾官方部門開始對每批輸華白蝦檢測蝦病，合格方出具衛生證書、準許發貨。自此“白蝦疫病事件”告一段落，進入相對穩定的時期。厄瓜多爾這一解決模式，也為其他出口國提供了借鑒。但今后輸華白蝦疫病問題是否還會出現反復，要取決于出口國的管控水平。

With the soaring of import volume, the number of unqualified shipments also increased a lot in 2019, especially in the field of imported frozen meat, by 288% year on year.

In addition, there are also major events in the field of imported seafood. In September, white shrimps from Ecuador and India were inspected by Chinese customs for white spot disease and yellow head disease. Many plants had been suspended from exporting to China during that period. After 3 months, authorities in Ecuador began to test each batch of white shrimp exported to China and awarded certificates of conformity to those qualified batches. Since then, the "white shrimp epidemic event" has finally come to subside.

06中美貿易戰

6. Trade war 

中美貿易戰持續成為2018年以來全球最為關注的問題，其影響范圍涉及貿易、投資、經濟，甚至政治等方方面面。美國作為全球肉類的主要生產國和出口國，美國肉類輸華自然深受中美貿易戰影響。在中美雙邊肉類貿易方面，中國幾乎是純進口國。因此，美國搬起石頭砸自己的腳，其輸華豬肉、牛肉被中國加征關稅，直接導致美國輸華肉類貿易斷崖式銳減。經歷了2018年的低谷，2019年中美關系得到了一定程度的緩和。2019年12月，中美簽署了第一階段貿易協定，簽署當月，美國對華肉類出口量便暴增，其中以豬肉貿易增長量最為明顯。美國2019全年對華豬肉出口量更是達到了2018年數據的3倍。據統計，2019年美國輸華肉類47.4萬噸，同比2017年的17.68萬噸和2018年的16.2萬噸分別暴增192%和168%。2019年年底，中國又批準了美國數百家肉類工廠對華出口肉類產品，預計2020年美國對華出口肉類數據會進一步膨脹。

The trade war between China and US has been a concerned international issue since 2018. It involves many industries, including international meat trade. As a major producer and exporter of meat in the world, the United States is deeply affected by the trade war. The Chinese government imposed additional tariffs on its pork and beef products exported to China, which directly led to a precipitous decline in the total amount of meat exported to China by the United States. But now the trough has become the past. By the end of 2019, the relationship between China and the United States have been greatly eased. In December, China and the United States signed the first phase of the trade agreement. In the month of the signing, the volume of meat exported to China by the United States increased sharply, especially for pork. According to USDA statistics, 474, 000 tons of meat exported from the United States to China in 2019, up 192% and 168% respectively from 176, 800 tons in 2017 and 162, 000 tons in 2018. In addition, at the end of 2019, China approved hundreds of U.S. plants to export meat products to China. It could be predicted that the U.S. meat export data to China will further expand in 2020.

07正關率大幅提升

7. Substantial improvement of 

official-unofficial ratio 

長期以來，不少肉類通過灰色渠道入境，帶來食品衛生風險和生物安全風險，嚴重沖擊市場秩序。近年來，國家有關部門持續加大打私力度，從邊境、運輸、分銷、用戶等各個環節同時發力，取得明顯成效。2019年，厄瓜多爾白蝦對越南出口大幅下降；2019年前11個月，印度到越南的水牛肉出口量也大幅削減，同比下降了18.16%。

Chinese meat and seafood import industry has been plagued by smuggling frozen meat and seafood for a long time. In recent years, the Chinese government has taken lots of actions to combat smuggling and achieved remarkable results, which could be reflected by this example: in 2019, white shrimp exported from Ecuador to Vietnam decreased significantly; in the first 11 months of 2019, the export of beef from India to Vietnam also decreased a lot, by 18.16% compared to 2018.

08食品安全監管進一步加強

8. Improvement of food safety regulation

中辦國辦印發《地方黨政領導干部食品安全責任制規定》，2019年2月5日起施行?！兑幎ā访鞔_，地方各級黨委和政府對本地區食品安全工作負總責，主要負責人是本地區食品安全工作第一負責責任人；提出建立地方黨政領導干部食品安全工作責任制，將食品安全工作納入地方黨政領導干部政績考核內容。

新修訂版《食品安全法實施條例》于12月1日起正式施行。新條例堅持以人民為中心，堅持“四個最嚴”要求，圍繞夯實主體責任、強化全過程監管、提高違法成本等重點內容，在食品安全法的基礎上，補短板、強弱項，以良法善治，為人民群眾“舌尖上的安全”保駕護航。

英國《經濟學人》智庫發布了《2019年全球食品安全指數報告》。中國在113個國家和地區中排名第35位，較去年上升11位。

In order to strengthen domestic food safety supervision, the Chinese government has issued a series of documents, includes “the provisions of food safety responsibility system” and “the newly revised food safety law”.

According to “Global Food Security Index (GFSI)” released by the “The Economist”, China ranks 35th out of 113 countries and regions, up 11 places from last year, according to the 2019 global food safety index report released by the economist.

09中國肉類進口深刻影響全球市場

9. Great influence of China on global meat trade

對于外商來說，中國市場需求龐大而且品類互補性強，近年來準入之門加速開啟，此外凍豬肉等進口關稅大幅調低4個百分點，降幅達30%。中國市場猶如強力磁石，改變了很多國家的肉類養殖、屠宰、加工、流通格局，甚至該國居民的消費習慣。在全球最大牛肉出口國巴西、主產國烏拉圭，中國買家競相搶購造成肉價飛漲，使得該國不得不從別國進口牛肉以平衡市場。

In recent years, in order to expand the import scale, the Chinese government has significantly reduced the import tariffs of meat. For example, the tariff of frozen pork has been reduced by 4 percentage points, with a drop of 30%. Chinese meat market is like a strong magnet. Its attraction has even changed the pattern of meat breeding, slaughtering, processing and circulation in many countries. In Brazil, the world's largest beef exporter, and Uruguay, the main beef producer, Chinese traders rushed to purchase mass quantities of beef, resulting in soaring meat prices, so that these two countries have to import beef from other countries to balance their domestic market.

10國際巨頭加快布局中國

10. International giants speed up their distribution in China

9月20日，德國通內斯集團和四川德康集團合作建設的生豬屠宰和肉食品加工廠正式簽約落戶四川眉山，可年屠宰加工生豬600萬頭，其中一期項目300萬頭，投資60億元。這是通內斯集團在歐洲之外投建的第一個工廠。而就在9天前（9月11日），丹麥皇冠集團在中國的第一個生產基地--丹尼斯冠食品(中國)有限公司浙江平湖工廠正式投產。

國外巨頭在華設立貿易公司、辦事處非常普遍；但直接投資設廠，還為數不多。通內斯、皇冠兩大豬肉巨頭在華投資，無疑是對中國龐大的肉類消費市場的看好和加持。相信將來還會有更多的國外肉企走進來，在中國直接打造肉類供應鏈，“零距離”貼近中國市場。

On September 20, 2019, T?nnies Group and Dekon Group officially signed a contract to jointly built a hog slaughtering and processing plant in Meishan, Sichuan Province. This will be the first plant that T?nnies Group invests and builds outside Europe.

Coincidentally, just 9 days ago (September 11), the first production base of Danish Crown was officially put into production in Pinghu, Zhejiang Province.

In fact, it is very common for foreign giants to set up trading companies and offices in China, but there are only few of them investing to set up plants. There is no doubt that the two pork giants, T?nnies and Danish Crown, are both optimistic about the huge meat consumption market in China. It could be expected that more foreign enterprises will come to build their own meat supply chains in China and be more closed to the Chinese market.