3月5日 北京時間11:00 PM , 與寧波（中國）供應鏈創(chuàng)新學院（寧創(chuàng)）名譽院長、麻省理工學院講席教授尤西·謝菲（Yossi·Sheffi）遠程面對面，聽他談談新型冠狀病毒對供應鏈的影響這個話題。

訪談上，麻省理工學院微碩士動態(tài)供應鏈課程老大Alexis Bateman將會采訪麻省理工學院教授Yossi Sheffi，共同探討COVID-19冠狀病毒的爆發(fā)可能導致的一些供應鏈影響。

除了短期影響分析以外，謝菲教授還將解答在不久的將來，此次病毒會有什么樣的影響。屆時，他將會分享一項正在進行的調(diào)研及其成果，調(diào)研分析了企業(yè)的供應鏈是如何受到影響的，以及此刻決策者們正在對此做什么。根據(jù)這些結(jié)果，謝菲教授將建議企業(yè)近期應如何應對，以及這對未來的干擾意味著什么。會后，在線參與聽眾也會有一個簡短的機會向謝菲教授提問。

本次主要議題如下：

• 對供應鏈的破壞有七個方面

• 事件影響可參考關鍵——西班牙流感

• 接下來一段時間會發(fā)生什么？

• 當下應當采取哪些行動？

• 大家所在的公司都是如何應對的？

• 什么類型的公司最容易受到危機的影響？

• 對政府反應的看法？

• 對供應鏈專業(yè)人士有什么建議？

• 還會影響多久？

• 對你的日常工作影響有多大？

• 公司現(xiàn)在可以做什么以更好地適應未來？

• 你如何看待反全球化在近期和未來的演變或發(fā)展？

• 會改變你公司未來在供應鏈中的運作方式嗎？

• 這場危機是否會為某些行業(yè)帶來機遇？

• 為什么供應鏈對此反應如此之晚？

• 缺貨時如何處理客戶關系？

• 這種影響如何突出了供應鏈專業(yè)人員的作用？

01、開場白

ALEXIS BATEMAN: All right.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的。

Welcome, everyone.

歡迎大家。

Thanks for joining today.

感謝您今天加入。

My name is Alexis Bateman, and I'm a research scientist here at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics.

我叫Alexis Bateman，我是這里在麻省理工學院的運輸與物流中心的研究科學家

And I also direct our Sustainable Supply Chains Initiative.

我還指導我們的可持續(xù)供應鏈計劃

Today, we're super fortunate to have MIT professor Yossi Sheffi with us, a highly regarded expert in all things supply chain, but especially in risk and resilience.

今天，我們非常幸運有MIT教授Yossi Sheffi與我們一起，一位備受推崇的專家在所有供應鏈中，尤其是風險和應變能力。

And he's written several books on the topic, including The Resilient Enterprise and The Power of Resilience via MIT Press.

他寫了幾本有關該主題的書， 包括彈性企業(yè)和力量通過麻省理工學院出版社。

And through this whole ordeal of coronavirus, he's been in close contact with our MIT CTL partners regarding their reactions to the spread of coronavirus.

通過整個XXvirus的考驗， 他一直與我們的MIT CTL保持密切聯(lián)系合作伙伴關于他們的反應到XXvirus的傳播。

Yossi, thanks for making the time for us today.

Yossi，感謝您為我們今天抽出寶貴的時間。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Thank you for doing this.

YOSSI SHEFFI：謝謝您這樣做。

It's a good idea.

是個好主意。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: All right.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的。

So for about the next 30 minutes,

因此，在接下來的30分鐘內(nèi)，

we're going to explore with Yossi the supply chain impacts caused by COVID-19 coronavirus.

我們將與Yossi一起探討由XXvirus引起的供應鏈影響

And at the end of this discussion,

在討論的最后，

we will have a really short amount of time for questions.

我們將有很短的時間來提問。

So if you guys are thinking about some questions, please save them and post them in the Q&A forum.

所以，如果你們正在考慮一些問題，請保存它們并將它們發(fā)布在“問答”論壇中。

And we'll try to get to as many as we can.

而且，我們將盡力做到盡可能多。

Please use the Webinar Q&A feature to ask those questions.

請使用網(wǎng)絡研討會問答功能詢問這些問題。

Be sure to be logged in with a name.

確保使用名稱登錄。

We're not going to be reading any questions from anonymous users.

我們不會閱讀任何問題來自匿名用戶。

And also, throughout this discussion,we're going to be running some polls.

而且，在整個討論中，我們將進行一些民意調(diào)查。

So please take a minute to fill them out

所以請花一點時間填寫

so you'll be able to see real-time results about how other supply chain professionals are being impacted by coronavirus, and we'll be able to learn more about everyone on the webinar today.

因此，您將能夠看到其他供應鏈專業(yè)人員如何受到XXvirus影響的實時結(jié)果，我們將能夠在今天的網(wǎng)絡研討會上了解更多關于每個人的信息。。

So watch out for those as we go along.

因此，請注意我們的前進方向。

All right, so let's dive right in.

好吧，讓我們開始吧。

02、對供應鏈的破壞有七個方面

So on February 18th, you wrote in the Wall Street Journal that previous disruptive events, like SARS or Fukushima,were not a really good yardstick for this epidemic.

所以在2月18日，你在《華爾街日報》上寫道，以前的破壞性事件，如非典或福島，并不是衡量這種流行病的真正標準。

Professor Sheffi, can you tell us a little about this disruption, and what makes it so different from others?

Sheffi教授，你能告訴我們一些關于這種破壞的情況嗎？是什么使它與其他人如此不同？

YOSSI SHEFFI: Sure.

YOSSI SHEFFI：好的。

The coronavirus disruption is different in seven aspects.

XXvirus的破壞在七個方面有所不同。

First of all, unlike, say, Fukushima or the Thailand floods or several hurricanes, it affects both supply and demand.

首先，不像福島或泰國洪水或幾場颶風，它會同時影響供求雙方。

It's not only that supply in China is being affected, it affects demand in China, of course, and worldwide.

不僅是中國的供應受到影響， 當然，它影響著中國乃至全球的需求。

Right now, we see demand in China is being affected.

目前，我們看到中國的需求正在受到影響。

Several retail stores closing.

幾家零售店關門。

Lots of activities are being contained.

許多活動停滯中。

So we see the whole economic activity in China going down.

因此，我們看到中國的整個經(jīng)濟活動正在下降。

Now we see it in South Korea, we see it in northern Italy, other European countries.

現(xiàn)在我們在韓國看到了，也在意大利北部和其他歐洲國家看到了。

We start seeing it in the United States.

我們開始在美國看到它。

So we have the problem with the supply that started in Wuhan in China.

所以我們有供應上的問題始于中國WH。

Factory closing, workers cannot come back from the new year.

工廠關閉，新年后工人不能回來工作。

Migration, when they all go home, go back to the factories.

移民，當他們都回家后，回到工廠。

So we had-- we still are feeling the impact, and we will start feeling it in two, three, four weeks.

因此，我們曾經(jīng)-我們?nèi)栽诟惺艿接绊懀?我們將在兩，三，四個星期內(nèi)開始感受到它。

The impact will crest in the United States and Europe,and can explain why is this timing like that.

這種影響將波及美國和歐洲， 并可以解釋為什么會這樣

But so we have the fear of the virus, which impacted demand.

但是我們擔心這種病毒會影響需求。

And this will be, at the end of the day, my feeling is this will be bigger than even the supply event.

最終，我的感覺是，這將是比供應事件更嚴重。

And add to this the fact that we don't know many things about the virus still.

除此之外，我們并不了解關于病毒的很多事情。

Not only there is nothing to fight it,nothing even to help people who are sick.

不僅沒有什么可以抗爭，甚至沒有什么可以幫助病人

It's not clear how to treat them.

目前尚不清楚如何治療它們。

So there's a fear going on that impacts economic activity.

因此，人們擔心會影響經(jīng)濟活動。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Right.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的。

That's super interesting.

太有趣了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

03、事件影響可參考框架——西班牙流感

So in late January, you actually-- right after this broke out, you surveyed some of our MIT CTL partners and constituents regarding some of the actions they were taking, if any, in reaction to the spread of the virus.

所以在一月底，你事實上——就在這件事發(fā)生之后，你調(diào)查了我們麻省理工學院CTL的一些合作伙伴和組成部分，關于他們在應對virus傳播時所采取的一些行動，如果有的話。

And at the time, the total reported infections were only 8,000, and mostly in China.

當時，報告的總數(shù)感染人數(shù)僅為8,000，其中大部分在中國。

And before we get into the question,I wanted to launch a poll, if you guys are able to fill that out, and then we'll be looking at those results in real time.

在我們討論這個問題之前， 我想發(fā)起一項民意調(diào)查，如果你們能夠填補這一點，然后我們將實時查看這些結(jié)果。

And so while we wait for people to fill out their--how they feel impacted, can you tell us anything about what you observed, you know, now almost a month ago about that initial survey,when the pandemic was still fairly contained,and how it's transitioned to now?

所以，當我們等待人們填寫他們的——他們感受到的影響時，你能告訴我們關于你觀察到的，你知道，現(xiàn)在差不多一個月前，關于最初的調(diào)查，當時的流行病仍然得到了很好的控制，以及它是如何過渡到現(xiàn)在的嗎？

YOSSI SHEFFI: Yeah.

YOSSI SHEFFI：是的。

A month ago, I got a lot of pushback when I said that this disruption should not be compared to SARS or Fukushima or Thailand.

一個月前，當我說這種干擾不應該與非典、福島和泰國相比時，我受到了很大的回擊。

It should best be compared to a point of reference that I could see.

最好把它與我能看到的一個參照點相比較。

The first one was the 1918 so-called Spanish influenza.

第一個是1918年所謂的西班牙流感。

That was enormous. It had actually very low mortality rate,

那是巨大的。實際上死亡率很低

but hundreds of millions of people were affected,

但是有數(shù)億人受到影響，

and there were between 50 and 70 million people died worldwide.

全世界有5000至7000萬人死亡。

That's one frame of reference.

這是一個參考框架。

Now we have better health care, we better understand how to deal with pandemics, but one has to keep an eye on this.

現(xiàn)在我們有了更好的醫(yī)療保健，我們更好地了解了如何應對大流行，但必須留意這一點。

The other one is the 2008 economic downturn,because one can still expect a significant economic downturn as a result of the virus.

另一個是2008年的經(jīng)濟衰退， 因為人們?nèi)匀豢梢灶A見經(jīng)濟將出現(xiàn)嚴重下滑由于該virus。

We saw the plunge in the Dow Jones Industrial

我們看到了道瓊斯指數(shù)的暴跌

Average and other stock average across the world.

全球平均水平和其他庫存平均水平。

It's actually down today, after going up yesterday,

今天實際上是下降的，昨天上升之后，

because of, in part, because of the US elections.

部分原因是由于美國大選。

But as we speak, the Dow Jones Industrial Average

但是正如我們所說的那樣，道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)

is significantly down.

明顯下降。

And I expect it to continue going down in the coming days.

而且我希望它在未來幾天內(nèi)會繼續(xù)下降。

We can talk about the timing now or later.

我們可以談論現(xiàn)在或以后的時間。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Sure, yeah.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的，是的。

Why don't we talk about the timing a little bit now?

為什么我們現(xiàn)在不談論時間呢？

04、接下來一段時間會發(fā)生什么亡羊補牢，為時未晚

YOSSI SHEFFI: So if you remember about the epidemic was starting to get the first factory closures outside of China was in Japan and South Korea.

YOSSI SHEFFI：所以，如果你還記得疫情開始蔓延，中國以外的第一家工廠關閉是在日本和韓國。

In Japan, Nissan was closing factories in Japan,

日產(chǎn)在日本關閉了日本的工廠，

and Hyundai was closing factories in South Korea.

現(xiàn)代汽車正在韓國關閉工廠。

Now, those factories are between a week and two weeks away from the centers of manufacturing in China.

現(xiàn)在，這些工廠離中國的制造業(yè)中心只有一到兩周的路程。

We are six to eight weeks away as the ship goes between a manufacturing center in China and the United States.

我們還有6到8周的時間，因為這艘船要經(jīng)過中國和美國的一個制造中心

Add to it some of the slowness of the transportation system in China right now, which is subject to a lot of audits

加上一些運輸系統(tǒng)的緩慢目前在中國，這需要進行大量審核

and checks, and not--movement that is impeded, in many ways.

和檢查，而不是- 在許多方面受到阻礙的運動。

And if you do the calculation, you expect, between mid March

如果您進行計算，您預計會在三月中旬之間

and beginning of April, US factories, European factories will start having shortages of parts.

在四月初，美國工廠，歐洲工廠將開始缺少零件。

Of course, it's not as disconcerting

當然，這并不令人不安

if we would build less cars, aside from the fact that it will have employment ramification.

如果我們能少造汽車，除了它會產(chǎn)生就業(yè)的影響之外。

What is most disconcerting is that we may not have enough pharmaceuticals.

最令人不安的是，我們可能不會有足夠的藥品。

A lot of pharmaceutical companies,

很多制藥公司

not always the finished product, are made in China.

并非總是成品是中國制造的。

And this will impact both Europe and the United States.

這將影響歐洲和美國。

And this is something that people are now starting to realize how dependent the West is on intermediate material made in China.

這就是人們現(xiàn)在所需要的開始意識到西方有多依賴關于中國制造的中間材料。

All of this will start creating even more fear and more panic,

所有這一切將開始引起更多的恐懼和更多的恐慌，

and we will see--

我們會看到-

I expect the market to keep going down,

我預計市場將繼續(xù)下跌，

and expect to see a lot of unpleasant ramifications

并期望看到很多不愉快的后果

in the coming weeks and months.

在接下來的幾周和幾個月內(nèi)。

05、當下應當采取哪些行動？

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Some sobering information there.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：那里有一些令人震驚的信息。

So actually on Bloomberg, you were interviewed

所以實際上在彭博社，您接受了采訪

at the end of February, and you advised some companies should

在二月底，您建議一些公司應該

be taking more action.

采取更多行動。

Can you talk about some of those actions

你能談談其中一些行動嗎

that you suggest for the companies being impacted?

您對受影響的公司有何建議？

YOSSI SHEFFI: Well, it's nice to talk to people in the supply chain field because you guys understand the bullwhip effect.

YOSSI SHEFFI：很高興和供應鏈領域的人交談，因為你們了解牛鞭效應

And I was talking about the bullwhip effect,

我在談論牛鞭效應，

because what happened--just a reminder to our audience.

因為發(fā)生了什么事，只是提醒我們的聽眾。

Let's say a retailer looks at the forecast

假設有一家零售商查看了該預測

and sees reduction in actual, you know, customer demandby x percent.

并且看到實際的客戶需求減少 x％。

Let's say 10%.

假設是10％。

It's x percent reduction.

減少了x％。

Now, they look to the future and say

現(xiàn)在，他們展望未來并說

customers are reducing demand by 10%,

客戶正在將需求減少10％，

by x percent, so we should reduce order by x percent.

減少x％，因此我們應將訂單減少x％。

But on top of it, we also have inventory that we ordered

但最重要的是，我們還訂購了庫存

based on previous forecasts.

根據(jù)先前的預測。

So we have too much inventory.

因此我們庫存過多。

Because of these two factors, we're

由于這兩個因素，我們

going to decrease the order to our wholesaler

將減少向批發(fā)商的訂單

not by x percent, by 2x percent.

不是x的百分比，而是2的百分比。

Not by 10%, by maybe 20%.

不是10％，可能是20％。

The wholesaler has exactly the same thing.

批發(fā)商完全一樣。

He sees 2x reduction in its orders.

他認為訂單減少了2倍。

It thinks it will continue.

它認為它將繼續(xù)下去。

It has too much inventory.

庫存過多。

So it looks to a manufacturer, and cuts its order by 3x or 4x.

因此，它尋求制造商，并將其訂單減少3倍或4倍。

And it goes upstream in the supply chain.

它在供應鏈的上游。

The people who are most vulnerable,

最脆弱的人

the company that are most vulnerable, and the company is upstream in the supply chain.

最脆弱的公司，公司在供應鏈的上游。

In many cases, these are small suppliers

在很多情況下，這些都是小型供應商

who do not have the wherewithal to with stand such reduction in order.

他們沒有足夠的錢來承受這樣的減少。

We just saw today the first European airline--

今天我們看到了第一家歐洲航空公司

obviously a small airline in Britain, Flybe--

顯然是英國的一家小型航空公司Flybe--

just went out of business.

剛倒閉

This is the first thing.

這是第一件事。

So just think about what's happening in the airline industry.

所以想想航空業(yè)發(fā)生了什么。

Flights are down significantly.

航班大幅下降。

Airlines are flying empty, or not flying at all, which means all the people who serve them--the people who prepare the meals, the people who move the gasoline around--all of these people are now having less work.

航空公司都是空的，或者根本不飛，這意味著所有為他們服務的人——準備飯菜的人，到處運送汽油的人——所有這些人現(xiàn)在都少了工作。

The people who supply to them, the people who make the cardboard for the meals on flight, three levels up in the supply chain are now having significant less orders.

向他們供貨的人，為飛機上的飯菜做紙板的人，供應鏈上三個層次的人，現(xiàn)在的訂單明顯減少了

It comes up to small suppliers at the end.

最終由小型供應商決定。

And by the way, let's talk a little bit

順便說一下

about what governments and companies can do.

關于政府和公司可以做什么。

Companies who went through the 2008 downturn

經(jīng)歷了2008年低迷的公司

realized their dependency on suppliers.

意識到他們對供應商的依賴。

And in 2008, many companies extended their own credit

并且在2008年，許多公司擴大了自己的信譽

to their suppliers, even invested in suppliers, in order

給他們的供應商，甚至投資于供應商

to make sure that they'll be viable.

確保它們將是可行的。

Because without parts and the material coming up through out the supply chain,

因為沒有零件，整個材料都堆積起來貫穿供應鏈，

they cannot assemble and build their own product.

他們無法組裝和建立自己的產(chǎn)品。

So a lot of manufacturers, from Intel

來自英特爾的眾多制造商

to Toyota to Procter&Gamble, were aware of this.

到豐田去寶潔，都意識到了這一點。

Governments are also aware of this.

各國政府也意識到這一點。

The Chinese government just announced--

中國政府剛剛宣布-

well, just-- a week ago announced

好吧，就在一周前宣布

that the state bank have to lend to small businesses,

國家銀行必須貸款給小企業(yè)，

and they reduced the taxes on small businesses.

他們減少了對小企業(yè)的稅收。

The government of Germany and Holland changed the labor law.

德國和荷蘭政府修改了勞動法。

Now you can go on part-time and still collect unemployment.

現(xiàn)在您可以兼職，仍然可以失業(yè)。

So people can go on 50%, and for the 50% that they don't work,

因此人們可以繼續(xù)工作50％，而對于50％不能工作的人，

the government will pay 70% of that.

政府將支付其中的70％。

So governments are getting ready for a downturn.

因此，各國政府已為經(jīng)濟下滑做好準備。

This is much better than 2008, when governments

這比2008年要好得多，當時政府

were caught unprepared.

措手不及。

Government now know what to do about this,

政府現(xiàn)在知道該怎么辦，

and start helping the vulnerable part of the economy.

并開始幫助經(jīng)濟中的弱勢群體。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: All right.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的。

Thank you, Yossi.

謝謝你，尤西。

That's really insightful.

那真的很有見地。

06、大家所在的公司都是如何應對的？

Before we get to the next question,

在我們開始下一個問題之前，

let's look at the poll results that everyone filled out.

讓我們看看每個人填寫的民意調(diào)查結(jié)果。

And so the question was, how is your company or organization reacting to the coronavirus?

所以問題是，你的公司或組織對XXvirus的反應如何？

So the biggest impact was grounding all nonessential travel.

因此，最大的影響是停止所有不必要的旅行。

So over 50% of you said that was one of the primary actions.

因此，你們中超過50％的人說這是主要行動之一。

Other high data points were setting up an emergency management center, at 38%.

其他高數(shù)據(jù)點正在設置緊急情況管理中心，占38％。

33% of you said creating a customer product priority plan.

你們中有33％的人表示創(chuàng)建客戶產(chǎn)品優(yōu)先級計劃。

29%, setting up a clear line of communication to government and regulatory agencies.

29％，與政府和監(jiān)管機構(gòu)建立清晰的溝通渠道。

And the next highest one would be

第二高的是

consulting with local contacts in areas of outbreaks.

與爆發(fā)地區(qū)的當?shù)芈?lián)系人進行協(xié)商。

And so all relevant impacts.

等等所有相關影響。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Makes sense.

YOSSI SHEFFI：很有道理。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Yeah, absolutely.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：是的，絕對如此。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Makes sense.

YOSSI SHEFFI：很有道理。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: All right, so let's go to the next.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的，讓我們轉(zhuǎn)到下一個。

07、什么類型的公司最容易受到危機的影響？

So based on these results and what

那么根據(jù)這些結(jié)果以及

you've been hearing from your contacts, what type

您一直在從您的聯(lián)系人那里聽到，什么類型

of companies are most vulnerable to the crisis?

的公司最容易受到危機的影響？

YOSSI SHEFFI: Well, we just talked about it.

YOSSI SHEFFI：好的，我們剛才談到了。

Obviously, look, we can go over some industries.

顯然，我們可以研究一些行業(yè)。

Certainly the airline industry is being hit hard.

當然，航空業(yè)正遭受重創(chuàng)。

The whole-- anything related to tourism is being hit very hard.

總體而言，與旅游有關的任何事情都受到嚴重打擊。

Hotels.

酒店。

Anything related to conferences.

與會議有關的任何內(nèi)容。

All gathering.

所有聚會。

I'm watching one of the countries that

我正在看其中一個國家

has probably the best health care system and the best IT

可能擁有最好的醫(yī)療保健系統(tǒng)和最好的IT

is Israel.

是以色列。

And they just had the big soccer game

他們剛剛參加了大型足球比賽

that was played in front of an empty stadium.

那是在一個空蕩蕩的體育場前演奏的。

There were pictures of this in the Israeli newspaper.

以色列報紙上有此圖片。

So the entire-- you know, anything related to tourism

所以整個-與旅游相關的任何事情

is going to be hit hard.

將受到重創(chuàng)。

Manufacturers that depend on China are, as I said,

正如我所說，依賴中國的制造商是

will be hit in two or three or four weeks,

將在兩三個，三個或四個星期內(nèi)被擊中，

will see shortages of parts coming.

將會看到零件短缺。

Already, by the way, if you order computer

順便說一句，如果您訂購計算機

from your favorite suppliers, be it Dell or HP or somebody else,

來自您最喜歡的供應商，無論是戴爾，惠普還是其他人，

you will find out that you don't get everything right away.

您會發(fā)現(xiàn)自己無法立即獲得所有收益。

A lot of stuff they give you, it will

他們給你很多東西，它將

be available in a month or two, or sometimes

一兩個月內(nèi)即可使用，有時

they don't even know when it will be available.

他們甚至不知道什么時候可用。

So we look at manufacturing.

因此，我們來看制造業(yè)。

Insurance industry.

保險業(yè)。

Insurance, depending on how this is developed, because usually

保險，取決于如何發(fā)展，因為通常

the insurance industry doesn't pay for it

保險業(yè)不為此付費

when demand goes down.

當需求下降時。

It's considered business as usual.

它被視為照常營業(yè)。

And furthermore, the insurance industry

而且，保險業(yè)

may decide that this is so-called force majeure.

可能會決定這是所謂的不可抗力。

They don't have to pay.

他們不必付款。

It something outside the normal business.

它超出正常業(yè)務范圍。

So I don't see the insurance industry paying.

因此，我認為保險業(yè)不會為此付出代價。

Finance industry, banking and so forth

金融業(yè)，銀行業(yè)等

are going to be hit because, first of all,

將會受到打擊，因為首先

we see immediately that their interests are going down,

我們立即看到他們的興趣在下降，

which usually hit the banks.

通常會打擊銀行。

But reduced economic activity, just like 2008.

但經(jīng)濟活動減少了，就像2008年一樣。

The banks were hit very badly.

銀行受到嚴重打擊。

So the banks are going to be hit.

因此，銀行將受到打擊。

I don't see anything related to defense spending being hit.

我看不到與國防開支有關的任何事情。

I don't see any impact on defense contractors.

我認為對國防承包商沒有任何影響。

It's kind of trying to think about industries

這是一種考慮行業(yè)的嘗試

that come to mind, about what will and will not be hit.

我想到的是什么會被打擊，什么將不會被打擊。

At MIT, by the way, we are starting--

順便說一下，在麻省理工學院，我們開始-

starting, already making plans for what happens if we have to start having students at home

開始，已經(jīng)在計劃如果我們要開始讓學生在家會發(fā)生什么

and having teaching from home and having moved a lot

在家里教書，搬了很多東西

of our activities to online.

我們的在線活動。

We already canceled several conferences and several trips.

我們已經(jīng)取消了幾次會議和幾次旅行。

So we are acting in the same way that most companies are acting.

因此，我們的行為方式與大多數(shù)公司的行為方式相同。

And nonessential travel is being curtailed.

并且減少了不必要的旅行。

Student travel in particular is being curtailed

尤其是學生旅行受到限制

while making plans to continue business

在制定繼續(xù)業(yè)務的計劃時

by continuing our research activity and teaching

通過繼續(xù)我們的研究活動和教學

activity online and from home.

在線和在家活動。

We're doing what everybody else is doing.

我們正在做其他人正在做的事情。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: This is where our experience in the MicroMasters online digital learning is coming into action.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：這就是我們在微商在線數(shù)字學習方面的經(jīng)驗開始發(fā)揮作用的地方。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Absolutely, as it turns out,

YOSSI SHEFFI：事實證明，

the Center for Transportation and Logistics,

運輸和物流中心

who led MIT in MicroMasters and online learning,

帶領麻省理工學院的MicroMasters和在線學習，

is very well positioned for this.

對此非常有利。

And, in fact, a lot of our experience

而且，事實上，我們的很多經(jīng)驗

now is shared with the rest of MIT

現(xiàn)在與MIT的其他成員共享

in order to help the institution do it wherever it can.

為了幫助該機構(gòu)在任何可能的地方做到這一點。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Right, absolutely.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的，絕對。

08、對政府反應的看法

So we talked a little bit before about some government responses.

所以我們之前談到了一些政府的反應。

And I was wondering what your perspective was

我想知道你的看法是什么

on as governments have made policies and plans

隨著政府制定政策和計劃

and announcements regarding the coronavirus and any lack

以及有關XXVirus和任何缺乏的公告

of transparency in those choices.

選擇的透明度。

Has that created any issues?

這有什么問題嗎？

YOSSI SHEFFI: I'm trying not to be political here,

YOSSI SHEFFI：我想在這里不要談政治，

but, in every event, in every crisis,

但是，無論如何，在每一次危機中，

the number one thing, the most important thing,

第一件事，最重要的是

is to have straightforward, continuous information flow

擁有直接，連續(xù)的信息流

and believable information.

和可信的信息。

We now see in the United States, how should I say, a difference between what the White House is saying and what the Centers for Disease Control is saying.

我們現(xiàn)在看到，在美國，我應該怎么說，白宮說的和疾病控制中心說的有區(qū)別。

And I would urge people to listen to the Centers of Disease Control, rather than the White House, because, in many countries,

我要敦促人們傾聽疾病控制中心的意見，而不是白宮的意見，因為在許多國家

particularly in the United States,

特別是在美國，

the response is being politicized.

回應正在被政治化。

And it's really unfortunate because, at this point,

真的很不幸，因為在這一點上，

it's all hands on deck.

一切都在甲板上。

And we all should be in it together.

我們大家都應該在一起。

The virus does not distinguish between Democrats

該virus 無法區(qū)分民主黨人

and Republicans.

和共和黨人。

So everybody is in the same boat.

所以每個人都在同一條船上。

And I hope people will think about it.

我希望人們能考慮一下。

And, whether Democrats are attacking the president

而且，民主黨人是否在抨擊總統(tǒng)

for not doing the right thing, or the president

因為沒有做正確的事，或者是總統(tǒng)

does not agree with Center for--

對于以下方面與中心不同意-

you know, the experts on this, it

你知道，對此的專家，

has to stop to help the country.

必須停下來幫助該國。

And the United-- at this point, it's amazing that the United States and China kind of are in the same boat in terms of how people trust or not trust the government.

在這一點上，令人驚訝的是，美國和中國在人們?nèi)绾涡湃位虿恍湃握矫嫣幱谕粭l船上。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Yeah, no, very insightful.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：是的，非常有見識。

Coronavirus, unfortunately, is a great equalizer.

不幸的是，XXvirus是一個很好的均衡器。

We're all equally vulnerable.

我們都同樣脆弱。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Absolutely.

YOSSI SHEFFI：好的。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: So let me just launch another poll

亞歷克西斯·貝特曼：所以讓我發(fā)起另一個民意調(diào)查

09、對供應鏈專業(yè)人士有什么建議？

about how you guys are being impacted,

關于你們?nèi)绾问艿接绊懀?/p>

get some feedback on that.

得到一些反饋。

So we have many active supply chain professionals

所以我們有很多活躍的供應鏈專業(yè)人士

on the line right now.

現(xiàn)在就在線。

So do you have some advice for these professionals

那么您對這些專業(yè)人士有什么建議嗎

who are struggling through this impact right now?

誰正在努力克服這種影響？

What are best practices for them in place

對他們來說最佳實踐是什么

that they can use to manage this impact

他們可以用來管理這種影響

in this time of uncertainty?

在這個不確定的時期？

YOSSI SHEFFI: The good thing about the supply chain in general is we have been conducting business online for decades now.

YOSSI SHEFFI：總的來說，供應鏈的好處是我們幾十年來一直在網(wǎng)上開展業(yè)務。

Globalization made sure that communication lines exist.

全球化確保了溝通渠道的存在。

And we can communicate with people,

我們可以與人溝通，

with both customers and suppliers, all over the world.

與世界各地的客戶和供應商一起。

We should, however, think about the--

但是，我們應該考慮-

I don't know if you have a poll later about it--

我不知道您以后是否會對此進行投票-

but what should supply chain managers be doing.

但是供應鏈經(jīng)理應該做什么。

So supply chain managers should be, most importantly,

因此，最重要的是，供應鏈經(jīng)理應該

trying to think about suppliers.

試圖考慮供應商。

Which suppliers are critical?

哪些供應商至關重要？

And which are vulnerable?

哪些脆弱？

Try to get as deep in the supply chain as they can.

嘗試盡可能深入供應鏈。

Communicate with tier one supplier

與一級供應商溝通

who should communicate with tier two, tier three what's happening there.

誰應該與第二層，第三層進行溝通發(fā)生了什么。

You should start thinking about if they

您應該開始考慮他們是否

don't have enough parts.

沒有足夠的零件。

And, in many cases, parts go into many products.

而且，在許多情況下，零件會進入許多產(chǎn)品。

Which products should be built?

應該制造哪些產(chǎn)品？

And which should not?

而哪個不應該呢？

Which customers should be served?

應該為哪些客戶提供服務？

And which should not?

而哪個不應該呢？

Which customer should be served at what percentage?

應該以哪個百分比為哪個客戶提供服務？

How to calculate it?

如何計算呢？

Because customers will start-- for example,

因為客戶將開始-例如，

if you decide that customers are getting only half of what they

如果您確定客戶只獲得他們一半的收益

ask for--

要求-

we'll make things simple--

我們將使事情變得簡單

everybody will order double because they

每個人都會下令加倍，因為他們

understand your algorithm.

了解您的算法。

So what you have to look at right now

所以你現(xiàn)在要看的是

is look at their past orders and forecast

看他們過去的訂單和預測

what their order should be like.

他們的訂單應該是什么樣的。

And base your decision on that.

然后根據(jù)您的決定。

So a lot of this preparation should

所以很多準備工作應該

be done now before something, before you get into trouble,

在遇到麻煩之前先做

because making decisions when the crisis is in its peak

因為當危機最嚴重時做出決定

usually does not make for good decisions.

通常不會做出好的決定。

There are lots of other things they should think about.

他們還應該考慮其他很多事情。

The decision-making, who makes the decision?

決策，誰來做決定？

Under what circumstances?

什么情況下

Let's say your CEO, your CFO, your head of supply chain

假設您的首席執(zhí)行官，首席財務官，供應鏈負責人

falls sick, has to stay home.

生病，必須待在家里。

Decisions have to be made.

必須做出決定。

Who makes them?

誰做的？

Who has the authority to make what decisions?

誰有權(quán)做出什么決定？

All of these things should be explained and communicated now

所有這些事情現(xiàn)在應該解釋和傳達

before we get into a situation like Alexander Haig.

在我們陷入亞歷山大·黑格之類的情況之前。

This is a very US-centric reference.

這是非常以美國為中心的參考。

When President Reagan was shot, Alexander Haig

當里根總統(tǒng)被槍殺時，亞歷山大·黑格（Alexander Haig）

came online, came on TV, and said I'm in charge.

上線，上電視，并說我負責。

Turns out, according to the Constitution, he was not,

事實證明，根據(jù)《憲法》，他不是

but he tried.

但是他嘗試了。

It's an example of what happens when

這是當

you start making decisions in a crisis situation

您開始在危機情況下做出決定

when people are not the best at thinking straight.

當人們不善于思考的時候。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Sure, well, that's good and timely advice for everyone on the line.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的，隨時為每個人提供良好和及時的建議。

10、還會影響多久？

So, given what we know today plus your past work

因此，鑒于我們今天所了解的以及您過去的工作

and ongoing work in resilience, has

和正在進行的彈性工作

this pandemic come to a peak?

這種流行病達到頂峰了嗎？

And how long do you think supply chains are going to be disrupted?

您認為供應鏈會被打亂多久？

YOSSI SHEFFI: OK, I'm going to let--

YOSSI SHEFFI：好的，我要讓...

ALEXIS BATEMAN: This is an easy question.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：這是一個簡單的問題。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Easy questions, yes.

YOSSI SHEFFI：好的問題，是的。

You know, it's hard to forecast of course.

您知道，這當然很難預測。

Forecasts are-- we know the first rule of forecasting

預測是-我們知道預測的第一法則

is forecasts are always wrong.

預測總是錯誤的。

So this is going to be wrong as well.

因此，這也將是錯誤的。

But what the hell?

但是到底是什么？

I'll do it.

我會做的。

So, as I said, I expect Europe and the United States

所以，正如我所說，我希望歐洲和美國

to peak in terms--

達到峰值

not to peak, to start realizing in earnest a lack of parts

不要達到頂峰，開始真正意識到缺少零件

and material coming from China, coming from China,

和材料來自中國，來自中國，

coming from South Korea.

來自韓國

We've already seen a significant demand reduction just

我們已經(jīng)看到大量的需求減少了

based on fear.

基于恐懼。

People don't feel like buying cars, going to the store.

人們不想買車，去商店。

Amazon announced now, because there's

亞馬遜現(xiàn)在宣布，因為

a surge of online buying, that people are not

在線購買激增，人們不會

going to get all the stuff in two hours or the next day,

要在兩個小時或第二天得到所有東西，

whatever their promise is, because the numbers are

不管他們的承諾是什么，因為數(shù)字是

so large that they can't really do it.

太大，以至于他們無法真正做到。

There's a surge in order.

訂單激增。

At the same time, Amazon will start having shortages.

同時，亞馬遜將開始短缺。

There are products that are not there.

有些產(chǎn)品不存在。

Right now, try to get a bottle of water on Amazon.

現(xiàn)在，嘗試在亞馬遜上買一瓶水。

Actually, you can't.

實際上，您不能。

As of yesterday, I tried.

從昨天開始，我嘗試了。

You couldn't get a bottle of water.

你拿不到一瓶水。

They're out of water.

他們沒水了。

People are starting to keep stashes

人們開始藏起來

at home of food and water.

家里的食物和水。

So some food, like cereal, that can last a long time,

所以一些食物，例如谷物，可以持續(xù)很長時間，

people are buying in large quantities.

人們正在大量購買。

But, anyway, the question was when

但是無論如何，問題是什么時候

do I expect shortages to start getting to a high level.

我期望短缺會開始達到很高的水平。

I don't say to peak because peak means that they'll

我不會說達到頂峰，因為頂峰意味著他們會

go down immediately afterwards.

之后立即下降。

I don't expect this to happen.

我不希望這種情況發(fā)生。

What happened is, right now, Chinese factories will go to--

現(xiàn)在發(fā)生的事情是，中國工廠將去-

for example, Foxconn announced that, by the end of March,

例如，富士康宣布，到三月底，

they'll be up to 70% or 80% of capacity.

它們將達到產(chǎn)量的70％或80％。

It's still not 100%, but they think

仍然不是100％，但他們認為

that, by the end of April, they will go to 100%.

到四月底，他們將達到100％。

That could be right, could be wishful thinking.

那可能是正確的，可能是一廂情愿的想法。

We just had-- last night, we had sudden and unexplained jump of cases in Wuhan, which we thought was going down already, significantly going down.

我們剛剛——昨晚，我們在XX突然發(fā)生了不明原因的案件，我們認為已經(jīng)在下降，明顯在下降。

In Wuhan and, of course, China, we just

在XX，當然還有中國，我們只是

had an unexplained jump.

發(fā)生了無法解釋的跳躍。

So that's partly what spooked the market this morning.

因此，這部分是今天早上嚇壞了市場的原因。

So, as I said, one of the problems

所以，正如我所說，問題之一

here we know so little about this particular pathogen,

在這里，我們對這種特殊的病原體知之甚少，

this particular virus.

這種特殊的virus。

And we cannot yet assume the behavior, but we know that,

我們還不能假設這種行為，但是我們知道，

investors from China, there will be a marked reduction

來自中國的投資者，將會明顯減少

in the number of sales.

在銷售數(shù)量上。

The number of sales coming to the United States

到美國的銷售數(shù)量

starting mid-march, end of March,

從3月中旬開始，到3月底，

that's when we start getting hit.

那就是我們開始受到打擊的時候。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Right, right.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：對，對。

It seems like there's still more to come so--

似乎還有更多的東西-

YOSSI SHEFFI: There's still more to come, absolutely.

YOSSI SHEFFI：絕對還有更多的事情要做。

11、對你的日常工作影響有多大？

ALEXIS BATEMAN: The poll seems to agree

ALEXIS BATEMAN：調(diào)查似乎同意

with that as well in terms of--

在以下方面-

YOSSI SHEFFI: What does the poll say?

YOSSI SHEFFI：民意測驗怎么說？

ALEXIS BATEMAN: So the question posed was is dealing with coronavirus impacting your daily duties significantly.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：所以我們提出的問題是處理XXvirus是否對你日常工作的影響很大。

So a quarter of you said yes, significantly.

因此，有四分之一的人說很大

33% said yes, a little.

33％的人說有一些。

Only 11% said no.

只有11％的人沒有。

So it is kind of impacting everyone almost equally.

因此，這幾乎對每個人都產(chǎn)生了相同的影響。

And then 31% said no, but I think it will soon.

然后31％的人檔期沒有，但我認為很快會產(chǎn)生影響。

So there are some being impacted now,

所以現(xiàn)在有些影響了

but the remaining will likely be impacted in the near future.

但其余的可能會在不久的將來受到影響。

12、公司現(xiàn)在可以做什么以更好地適應未來？

All right, so let's go on to the future questions.

好的，讓我們繼續(xù)討論未來的問題。

So I'll ask one more of my own question,

所以我再問一個自己的問題，

and then we will open it up for a few audience questions.

然后我們將它開放給一些觀眾問題。

We're only going to have a little bit of time,

我們只剩下一點時間

but, if you want to ask a question,

但是，如果您想提一個問題，

make sure to get your question in there now.

確?，F(xiàn)在就提出您的問題。

So, with this disruption ongoing and with

因此，隨著這種破壞的持續(xù)進行，

the imperative to prepare for future disruptions,

必須為將來的破壞做準備，

what can companies do now to better adapt for the future?

公司現(xiàn)在可以做什么以更好地適應未來？

YOSSI SHEFFI: It's too late now, by and large.

YOSSI SHEFFI：總的來說，現(xiàn)在為時已晚。

Now that the disruption is in full force

現(xiàn)在破壞已經(jīng)全面展開

or getting ready to be in full force,

或準備全力以赴，

there's no time to move manufacturing out of China.

沒有時間將制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移出中國。

And, by the way, there's a question.

而且，還有一個問題。

Where would you move it?

你會把它移到哪里？

You move it to the next place that's going to be hit.

您將其移至將要命中的下一個位置。

You move it to Vietnam, to Indonesia, to South Korea.

您將其移至越南，印度尼西亞，韓國。

It's not clear where to move it.

目前尚不清楚將其移動到何處。

It is-- what is clear is that one may want to do--

很明顯，您可能想做的是

to have multiple suppliers in different parts of the world.

在世界各地擁有多個供應商。

So, at least, it doesn't hit at the same time.

因此，至少不會同時擊中它。

And, maybe by the time that it hits Mexico and Latin America--

而且，也許在它席卷墨西哥和拉丁美洲時-

and it will--

它將-

China is getting back on line.

中國正在恢復聯(lián)系。

So you have some type of equilibrium there.

因此，那里有某種均衡。

So that's the best that I think that you can do.

因此，這是我認為您可以做到的最好的做法。

In the long run, moving manufacturing out of China,

從長遠來看，將制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移出中國，

yeah, in general, you want-- it's not moving

是的，總的來說，您想要的-它沒有移動

manufacturing out of China.

制造出中國。

It's having manufacturing elsewhere.

它在其他地方有制造。

The problem with moving manufacturing out of China

制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移出中國的問題

is that we've become too dependent on China.

是我們太依賴中國了。

China started-- for products like garments

中國開始了-針對服裝等產(chǎn)品

that are basically based on low labor costs, yeah,

基本上是基于較低的勞動力成本，是的，

you can move them to Vietnam.

您可以將它們移至越南。

You can move it elsewhere.

您可以將其移動到其他位置。

But, for high-tech products, automotive parts,

但是，對于高科技產(chǎn)品，汽車零件，

Chinese are simply too good.

中國真是太好了。

They're innovative.

他們是創(chuàng)新的。

They're good.

很好

It's not easy to find the same level of supplier capability

找到同等水平的供應商能力并不容易

elsewhere.

別處。

As an example, who would have even thought

例如，誰會想到

that anybody can build a hospital in 10 days?

任何人都可以在10天內(nèi)建立醫(yī)院？

I mean, it just shows the level of capability in China

我的意思是，這只是表明中國的能力水平

that actually doesn't exist anywhere in the world.

實際上在世界任何地方都不存在。

So it's not clear that one can move out of China.

因此，不清楚是否可以搬出中國。

It's a long term, and I would say

這是一個長期的過程，我會說

balancing is more realistic than moving out of China.

平衡比遷出中國更為現(xiàn)實。

And there are certain things that one

在某些事情上

should do like better visibility deeper into your supplier,

應該更深入地了解供應商，

sure, always something that's important.

當然，總是重要的事情。

And investing in-- this is becoming easier

進行投資-這變得越來越容易

to do with IoT and lots of new products

與物聯(lián)網(wǎng)和許多新產(chǎn)品有關

that are coming on line that allow companies to have better visibility and understand also the importance of better visibility.

即將上線，這將使公司有更好的可視性，并理解更好的可視性的重要性。

And the importance of better visibility in a crisis

在危機中提高可視性的重要性

is simply having an earlier warning.

只是提前發(fā)出警告。

So companies should map their supply chain,

因此，公司應繪制其供應鏈圖，

should understand not only where the headquarters-- you know,

不僅應該了解總部在哪里-你知道，

when you run your SAP system, and you look at the supplier

當您運行SAP系統(tǒng)并查看供應商時

address, it will give you the headquarter address

地址，它將為您提供總部地址

because that's where you send the check.

因為那是您發(fā)送支票的地方。

That's not the issue for supply chain professionals.

對于供應鏈專業(yè)人員而言，這不是問題。

You need to know where the plants are of the supplier.

您需要知道供應商的工廠在哪里。

So, if something comes up in some city

因此，如果某個城市出現(xiàn)了問題

or area around the world, you know what is being affected.

或世界各地，您知道受到什么影響。

You should know what is made there.

您應該知道那里做了什么。

What products are made there that impact your product

那里生產(chǎn)的哪些產(chǎn)品會影響您的產(chǎn)品

and your customers?

和你的顧客？

So mapping the supply chain at that level is also something that takes time.

因此，在這個層次上繪制供應鏈圖也是需要時間的。

The good thing is there are now several commercial suppliers of these kind of mapping capabilities that can help you do it, still something that takes time,takes work, but it's imperative to make sure that you can deal better with the next disruption.

好的一面是現(xiàn)在有好幾家具有這種映射功能的商業(yè)供應商可以幫助您完成這項工作，這仍然需要時間和工作，但必須確保您能夠更好地應對下一次中斷。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Right, absolutely.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的，絕對。

Good advice to think about for now

現(xiàn)在要考慮的好建議

and continuing in the future.

并在未來繼續(xù)。

So I just released one more poll about how you see your company as adapting.

所以我又發(fā)布了一個關于你如何看待你的公司適應環(huán)境的民意測驗

So take a minute to fill out that poll.

因此，請花一點時間填寫該調(diào)查。

And now we're going to dive into a few questions.

現(xiàn)在，我們將深入探討幾個問題。

We crowd-sourced some that came in early, and then I'll start pulling from the list for the next 10 to 15 minutes.

我們從人群中收集了一些早期的信息，然后我將在接下來的10到15分鐘內(nèi)從列表中抽出來。

And then we'll need to sign off.

然后我們需要退出。

13、你如何看待反全球化在近期和未來的演變或發(fā)展？

But one of the quick questions here will be, given the macro-- and, trying to stay as apolitical as possible,but, obviously, this is a politically loaded question--given the macro environment of coronavirus,

但這里的一個快速問題是，考慮到宏觀因素——并且，盡量保持非政治性，但是，顯然，這是一個政治問題——考慮到XXvirus的宏觀環(huán)境，

nationalistic policies, how do you see anti-globalization evolving or developing in the near term and future?

民族主義政策，你如何看待反全球化在近期和未來的演變或發(fā)展？

YOSSI SHEFFI: Yeah, this is problematic of course.

YOSSI SHEFFI：是的，這當然是有問題的。

It's interesting that, in the US,

有趣的是，在美國，

the two extreme parties, both Trump on the other side

兩個極端政黨，都在特朗普的另一邊

and Bernie Sanders, for those who follow US politics,

和伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders），對于那些追隨美國政治的人來說，

Bernie Sanders on the far left, while many

最左邊的伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）

of Trump's supporters on the far right,

最右邊的特朗普支持者

the only thing they agree on is they're

他們唯一同意的是

both anti-globalization.

反全球化。

They both want to pull the US out of any engagement in the world, which is nuts.

他們都想把美國從世界上的任何接觸中拉出來，這簡直是胡說八道。

I mean, that's a technical term.

我的意思是，這是一個技術(shù)術(shù)語。

I mean, it will lead to a reduction

我的意思是，這將導致減少

in the standard of living in the US and throughout.

符合美國乃至整個美國的生活水平。

It just cannot-- it makes no sense whatsoever.

它根本不能-毫無意義。

In fact, the coronavirus, I made a statement

其實XXvirus我做了一個聲明

before about the coronavirus doesn't

之前關于XX病毒沒有

distinguish between Democrat and Republican.

區(qū)分民主黨人和共和黨人。

It also doesn't distinguish between Chinese and Americans.

它還沒有區(qū)分中國人和美國人。

It doesn't distinguish between Vietnamese and Russian.

越南人和俄羅斯人沒有區(qū)別。

It's a worldwide phenomena, and the world

這是世界范圍的現(xiàn)象，世界

has to act together on this.

必須對此采取共同行動。

And, in this sense, let me just give China its dues.

從這個意義上說，讓我來為中國付出代價。

They identified the structure, the DNA structure,

他們確定了結(jié)構(gòu)，DNA結(jié)構(gòu)，

of the virus early and distributed it

早期感染并分發(fā)

around the world.

世界各地。

This is, in fact, what the world is using now.

實際上，這就是當今世界正在使用的東西。

They're are actually three tests.

他們實際上是三個測試。

There are DNA, RNA, and protein tests

有DNA，RNA和蛋白質(zhì)測試

that are used to validate that somebody has the virus.

用于驗證某人是否感染了病毒。

Well, the signature of the virus came from China.

好吧，該病毒的特征來自中國。

They very quickly identified and informed the world around it.

他們很快發(fā)現(xiàn)并通知了周圍的世界。

So it's a worldwide phenomenon that needs--

因此，這是一種全球性的現(xiàn)象，需要-

I'm not saying Chinese did everything better.

我并不是說中國人都做得很好。

They didn't allow the World Health Organization

他們不允許世界衛(wèi)生組織

in right away and other things, but they did many things right.

馬上進行其他事情，但是他們做了很多正確的事情。

The US government does many things right and quite a few things wrong

美國政府做了很多對的事，也做了很多錯的事

So you try to get something when government--

所以當政府-

my guess is many governments in Europe

我的猜測是歐洲許多政府

are better positioned for this because there's

對此有更好的定位，因為

more trust in government in general

總體上對政府的信任度更高

than in the US in general.

相比美國。

So places where there's trust in government,

所以在信任政府的地方

in this particular crisis, are better equipped

在這場特殊的危機中，裝備更好

to fight, to fight the virus.

戰(zhàn)斗，抵抗Virus。

14、會改變你公司未來在供應鏈中的運作方式嗎？

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Right, so let's take a quick look at our poll that we just ran, which is how do you think--

ALEXIS BATEMAN：所以讓我們來看看我們剛剛進行的民意調(diào)查，你是怎么想的

do you think the disruptions could change how your company operates in the supply chain in the future?

你認為這些中斷會改變你公司未來在供應鏈中的運作方式嗎？

And so, by and large, everyone said having greater risk management protocols in place, 63% out of a multi-select question, more visibility to deeper tier suppliers, as Yossi jus tmentioned.

因此，總的來說，每個人都說，有更大的風險管理協(xié)議，63%的問題是多選擇的，更深入的層次供應商的可見性，正如Yossi所說。

Another one would be more remote work opportunities so kind  of trialing those, in terms of whether that's an opportunity or whether that's a possibility.

另一個可能是更遙遠的工作機會，所以可以分為三類，無論是機會還是可能性。

And then the next highest will be overall travel reduction

其次是整體旅行減少

may be an impact or a future scenario out of this, so

可能是影響或未來的情況，所以

some interesting results there.

一些有趣的結(jié)果。

15、這場危機是否會為某些行業(yè)帶來機遇？

So I wanted to pull a question I think is

所以我想提出一個我認為是的問題

really interesting from Randy.

蘭迪真的很有趣。

He asks, will this crisis be an opportunity for some industries

他問，這場危機是否會為某些行業(yè)帶來機遇

such as online retailing?

例如在線零售？

You mentioned that a little bit, not exposed to human interaction or more automation and manufacturing, like robots replacing labor.

你剛才提到了一點，沒有接觸到人與人之間的互動或者更多的自動化和制造，就像機器人取代了勞動力。

YOSSI SHEFFI: The answer is yes.

YOSSI SHEFFI：答案是肯定的。

Again, I'm looking at what Israel is doing.

同樣，我正在看以色列在做什么。

The way they isolate people is the following.

他們隔離人的方式如下。

The caretakers are not getting into the same room

看護人不在同一個房間

with a patient.

和病人在一起。

The patients are totally instrumented.

患者完全被儀器化了。

They're in bed.

他們在床上。

They are sending every few seconds the vital signs through computers.

他們每隔幾秒鐘發(fā)送一次生命體征通過計算機。

People who just suspect that they have it get an instrument they can put under their mattress that tests their breathing because this virus affects the lungs.

那些懷疑自己有這種病毒的人會得到一個可以放在床墊下測試自己呼吸的儀器，因為這種Virus會影響肺部。

So it sends messages if, during night, even you

因此，即使在晚上，即使您

don't know it, at night, your breathing is not normal.

不知道，在晚上，你的呼吸不正常。

So it sends, again, an alert.

因此，它再次發(fā)送警報。

And this is everyone.

這就是每個人。

People can just get it because they suspect

人們可以得到它，因為他們懷疑

that they have the virus.

他們有virus。

So, going back to the question, what--

所以，回到問題上，什么-

ALEXIS BATEMAN: It says the industries that will be--

ALEXIS BATEMAN：該行業(yè)將-

YOSSI SHEFFI: Ah, OK, so you have--

YOSSI SHEFFI：好的，所以您有-

so I see in Israel several robotics

所以我在以色列看到了幾種機器人

companies are doing very well.

公司做得很好。

I see a lot of companies who manufacture

我看到很多公司制造

sensors doing very well.

傳感器做得很好。

In terms of processes, after working at home,

就流程而言，在家工作后，

a lot of people may like it, not everybody,

很多人可能會喜歡，而不是所有人，

but it will allow people to work remotely.

但它可以使人們遠程工作。

We at CTL have several of our professionals working remotely.

在CTL，我們有幾位遠程專業(yè)人員。

In fact, Alexis works out of California.

實際上，Alexis在加利福尼亞以外的地方工作。

We have several other people who work remotely because,

我們還有其他幾個遠程工作的人，因為，

in this day and age, you really don't have to be face to face.

在這個時代，您真的不必面對面。

Maybe there has to be a period when you have to be face

也許有一段時間你必須面對

to face, but, after your colleagues and the project,

面，但是，在您的同事和項目之后，

more and more people will start working remotely.

越來越多的人將開始遠程工作。

We will have better software, as Zoom is doing very well now.

我們將擁有更好的軟件，因為Zoom如今表現(xiàn)出色。

Companies who provide the capabilities to work this way

提供以這種方式工作的能力的公司

are doing very well.

做得很好。

So we'll have more of that.

因此，我們將擁有更多。

Other than that, I try to think about there'll

除此之外，我嘗試考慮

be another push or even greater push for IoT,

是物聯(lián)網(wǎng)的又一推動甚至更大的推動，

for Internet of Things, those sensors and to create

用于物聯(lián)網(wǎng)，這些傳感器并創(chuàng)建

long-term visibility, mapping of supply chains,

長期可見性，供應鏈映射，

understanding where your stuff is coming from.

了解您的東西來自哪里。

Companies are going to be even better prepared

公司將作更好的準備

for the next one.

下一個。

I'm trying to think.

我在想。

That's about it.

就是這樣

ALEXIS BATEMAN: So, for some, at least,

ALEXIS BATEMAN：因此，至少對于某些人來說，

the outlook is slightly positive.

前景是積極的。

So we can take some glimmers of hope.

這樣我們就可以看到一線希望。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Sure, the outlook is slightly positive.

YOSSI SHEFFI：當然，前景是樂觀的。

It's you know--

你知道-

16、為什么供應鏈對此反應如此之晚？

ALEXIS BATEMAN: So another question that Etisham is asking is, why are supply chains reacting so late to this?

ALEXIS BATEMAN：因此，Etisham提出的另一個問題是，為什么供應鏈對此反應如此之晚？

YOSSI SHEFFI: Great question.

YOSSI SHEFFI：很好的問題。

Because, when everything is said and done, there's a lot more said than done.

因為，當每件事都說了又做了，說的比做的多得多。

People have been talking of-- what happens with crisis is really, in some sense, unfortunate.

人們一直在談論——在某種意義上，危機的后果確實是不幸的。

When the crisis happens, people get all excited and commit to doing this, that, and the other thing.

當危機發(fā)生時，人們都會很興奮，并致力于做這個，那個，還有其他的事情。

And then the crisis is over.

危機結(jié)束了。

And, in most companies, there's no redundancy in staff.

而且，在大多數(shù)公司中，沒有多余的員工。

So people have to do--

所以人們必須-

to work a lot.

工作很多。

And people are always under pressure

人們總是承受壓力

to solve the day-to-day issue, the day-to-day problem.

解決日常問題，日常問題。

And long-term issues are forgotten, simply left

遺忘了長期的問題

by the wayside, because, suddenly, you have to answer to this customer.

順便說一下，因為，突然之間，你必須回答這個客戶的問題。

You have this problem in production.

您在生產(chǎn)中遇到此問題。

You have this type of his type of shipment stuck in some port.

你把這種類型的貨物卡在某個港口了。

So that's where you go right back to.

這就是您要回到的地方。

And, in fact, when I'm talking to boards,

而且，實際上，當我與董事會對話時，

I always tell them it's their responsibility.

我總是告訴他們這是他們的責任。

It's the board of directors because even the CEO has to deal with the day to day in many cases,

這是董事會，因為在很多情況下，即使是首席執(zhí)行官也必須每天處理，

but board of directors have to make sure

但董事會必須確保

that there's strategic planning going on almost continuously

幾乎持續(xù)進行戰(zhàn)略計劃

and looking at what is this that--

看看這是什么-

what are the long-term issues?

長期的問題是什么？

And what are the even plans?

甚至有什么計劃？

What at the HR bonus plans or enumeration plans

人力資源獎金計劃或列舉計劃有什么用

that take into account long-term thinking?

考慮到長期思考？

A lot have been written about the fact that public companies are living quarter to quarter and managing quarter to quarter.

關于上市公司按季度生存和按季度管理的事實，已經(jīng)有很多報道。

And this is the enemy of long-term thinking,

這是長期思考的敵人，

of trying to solve the next coronavirus, Fukushima, SARS,

試圖解決下一個XXvirus，福島，SARS的問題，

whatever it is, Syrian refugees.

無論是敘利亞難民。

There are problems all over the world.

世界各地都有問題。

And some of them we can predict.

我們可以預測其中的一些。

Some of them we don't.

其中一些我們沒有。

But there are general rules of having emergency operations center, having communication, having visibility, having decision-making authority, prioritize customer, understand who our suppliers are.

但是有一些一般的規(guī)則，有緊急行動中心，有溝通，有可見性，有決策權(quán)，優(yōu)先考慮客戶，了解我們的供應商是誰。

All of these issues work in every disruption.

所有這些問題在每次破壞中都起作用。

So all of this should be there and ready to unveil.

因此，所有這些都應該存在并準備揭曉。

Many companies, like Cisco I think,

我認為許多公司，例如思科，

has what they call playbooks.

有他們所謂的劇本。

They have 18 playbooks.

他們有18本劇本。

Or, for several types of disruptions,

或者，對于幾種類型的中斷，

they have a playbook on what to do in this case.

他們有一本關于在這種情況下該怎么做的書。

More and more companies should have playbooks.

越來越多的公司應該擁有劇本。

And the issue is most large companies by now have them.

現(xiàn)在的問題是大多數(shù)大公司都擁有它們。

They can be better, of course, but most large companies have them.

當然，他們可以做得更好，但大多數(shù)大公司都有。

The problem is the small companies,

問題是小公司，

which are part of the ecosystem of these large companies, the small suppliers who usually don't have the capacity to develop these plans.

它們是這些大公司生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的一部分，這些小供應商通常沒有能力制定這些計劃。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Great, very insightful.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：很好，很有見識。

So a few questions I saw asking about Yossi's research

我看到了幾個有關Yossi研究的問題

that he did with our CTL partners,

他與我們的CTL合作伙伴一起做的，

so, after you log out of this, we'll actually have links to all of the things he's already written

所以，在你注銷之后，我們會有他已經(jīng)寫過的所有東西的鏈接

and some of his interviews he has

還有他的一些采訪

done with Bloomberg and CNBC.

與彭博社和CNBC合作。

So be sure to watch those because he discusses some

所以一定要注意那些，因為他討論了一些

of those results there as well.

這些結(jié)果也在那里。

17、缺貨時如何處理客戶關系

And so I think we have time for one more question.

因此，我認為我們還有時間再提出一個問題。

So I saw it scattered a couple times throughout this, and now I can't find it.

所以我看到它散落了幾次，現(xiàn)在我找不到了

But, customer prioritization, so,

但是，客戶優(yōu)先級如此

when there's not enough product, how do you deal with the customers, while maintaining that relationship?

當沒有足夠的產(chǎn)品，你如何處理客戶，同時保持這種關系？

YOSSI SHEFFI: OK, the simple--

YOSSI SHEFFI：好的，簡單-

by the way, many question have simple answers,

順便說一下，許多問題都有簡單的答案，

and it's usually wrong.

這通常是錯誤的。

And the simple answer is you do it by margins.

而簡單的答案就是您可以做到這一點。

You know, customer margins are driving.

您知道，客戶利潤在增長。

That's usually wrong, and most people

通常這是錯誤的，大多數(shù)人

know that it's wrong because, for example,

知道這是錯誤的，例如，

if you just got your first order for Walmart,

如果您剛收到沃爾瑪?shù)牡谝还P訂單，

you really, even though it's a small part right now,

你真的，即使現(xiàn)在只是一小部分，

Walmart can make you huge.

沃爾瑪可以使您變得龐大。

So you don't want to not serve Walmart.

因此，您不想不為沃爾瑪服務。

So you have to think about customer vulnerability.

因此，您必須考慮客戶漏洞。

We even found cases when companies

我們甚至發(fā)現(xiàn)了一些案例

served small customers, rather than big customers,

服務于小客戶而不是大客戶，

because they thought that the small customer depended on them

因為他們認為小客戶依賴于他們

and may go out of business if they don't serve them,

如果他們不為他們服務，可能會倒閉，

while big customers have a broader range of products

大客戶擁有更多產(chǎn)品

and may survive if they get only 50% of the amount that they order.

如果他們只拿到訂單金額的50%，他們可能會活下來。

All of these consideration, consideration of equity, you don't want to be seen as favoring one customer over another because the customer who was not favored is going to get back at you later on when they can.

所有這些考慮，對權(quán)益的考慮，你不想被看作是對一個客戶的偏愛，因為不受青睞的客戶稍后會在可能的時候報復你。

Some companies did, when there were shortages, for example,

例如，有些公司這樣做是在短缺的時候，

after the Tallinn floods, some companies did auctions.

塔林洪災之后，一些公司進行了拍賣。

Every economist will tell you that auctions are actually the best mechanism because you allocate the parts to the person who needs it most.

每個經(jīng)濟學家都會告訴你，拍賣實際上是最好的機制，因為你把部分分配給最需要的人。

However, auction gets the prices way up when there's a shortage.

但是，在短缺的情況下，拍賣會使價格上漲。

And companies look at it as you are actually using the--you're profiteering.

公司把它看作是你在利用——你在牟取暴利。

You are raising your profit in time when we are all in trouble.

當我們都陷入困境時，你正在及時提高你的利潤

So you ruin customer relationships.

因此，您破壞了客戶關系。

You have to think about all of these things.

您必須考慮所有這些事情。

How do you decide which customer to serve

您如何決定服務哪個客戶

and which customers not to serve?

哪些客戶不服務？

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Right, no, very important to think about all those variations.

ALEXIS BATEMAN：是的，考慮所有這些變化是非常重要的。

So we have tons of questions we're not going to be able to get to today, but we are going to be opening a chat.

所以我們有很多問題今天無法回答，但是我們要開始聊天。

So some of our team from the MicroMasters and others around the center will be trying to tackle some of your questions.

因此，我們的一些小組，從微觀和其他圍繞中心將試圖解決你的一些問題。

18、這種影響如何突出了供應鏈專業(yè)人員的作用？

So, one final question before we sign off today,

所以，在我們今天結(jié)束之前的最后一個問題是，

how has this impact highlighted the role of the supply chain professional?

這種影響如何突出了供應鏈專業(yè)人員的作用？

YOSSI SHEFFI: Yeah, it reminds me of a colleague of mine in civil engineering department whose research is on earthquakes.

YOSSI SHEFFI：是的，這讓我想起我在土木工程系的一位同事，他的研究方向是地震。

And, every time there's an earthquake, he's in the news,

而且，每次發(fā)生地震時，他都會成為新聞

and he's you know--

他是你知道的

so, right now, there's an earthquake.

所以，現(xiàn)在發(fā)生了地震。

We look at the shortages, and people are looking at the procurement professional and manufacturing professional, distribution professionals.

我們看短缺，人們看采購專業(yè)和制造專業(yè)，分銷專業(yè)。

What do we do in case?

萬一該怎么辦？

What do we do already?

我們已經(jīng)做什么了？

We can't get our stuff out of China.

我們不能將東西運出中國。

Find us alternate suppliers.

查找我們替代供應商。

Well, if you'd before--

好吧，如果您以前曾想過-

if you had before some alternate suppliers ready,

如果您已經(jīng)準備好一些備用供應商，

and you tested them, and you know the quality,

您測試了它們，并且知道質(zhì)量，

you're in better shape than just trying

您的狀態(tài)比嘗試更好

how to find who can make a certain part when, by the way,

順便說一句，如何找到誰可以做出決定

all your competitors are in the same boat.

您所有的競爭對手都在同一條船上。

They're all jumping on the one supplier

他們都跳上了一個供應商

who can be an alternative.

誰可以替代。

And they cannot supply everything.

他們無法提供一切。

So he who is the better prepared is better prepared.

因此，準備得更好的人就會準備得更好。

And, if you're doing this at the last minute,

而且，如果您在最后一刻這樣做，

it doesn't work usually.

它通常不起作用。

ALEXIS BATEMAN: Right, all right,

ALEXIS BATEMAN：好的，好的，

19、結(jié)束語

thank you so much, Yossi, for your time.

Yossi，非常感謝您的寶貴時間。

This has been really insightful.

這真的很有見地。

And I hope this has been helpful for all of you,

我希望這對你們所有人都有幫助，

bringing Yossi's wisdom today.

今天帶來了Yossi的智慧。

And, like I said, keep in touch.

并且，正如我所說，保持聯(lián)系。

We'll be answering questions as we go.

我們將繼續(xù)回答問題。

Be sure to reference all the materials Yossi is putting out

請務必參考Yossi推出的所有材料

there right now to be able to support everyone.

現(xiàn)在可以為所有人提供支持。

And best of luck.

祝你好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

YOSSI SHEFFI: Thank you very much.

YOSSI SHEFFI：非常感謝。

See you all.

大家再見。